Taiwan Strait: What Is at Stake and How to Prevent a Conflict
An interview with David Sacks.
View ArticleTaiwan Watches Ukraine With an Eye Toward Security at Home
Taiwan’s government is on alert for ripple effects from the Russian invasion in the form of “cognitive warfare” and economic difficulties.
View ArticleThe Ukraine Invasion: What Lessons Is China Learning?
Xi Jinping is watching Ukraine with one eye on Taiwan. The West must give him reason to think any invasion would be disastrously costly.
View ArticleTaiwan Welcomes Pompeo While Watching Ukraine
The former secretary of state’s visit became part of discussions on Taiwan about U.S. support amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
View ArticleTaiwan Watches the Ukraine Invasion and Asks: Are We Ready?
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked a conversation about how well Taiwan’s armed forces and civilian population are prepared to fend off a Chinese invasion.
View ArticleWhat Could European Militaries Contribute to the Defense of Taiwan?
It is clear that European militaries can contribute to the defense of Taiwan if required – and they can start taking the necessary steps now.
View ArticleLook to Hong Kong, Not Ukraine, For Signals About China’s Taiwan Plans
Few took it seriously when Xi Jinping first said he would consolidate control over Hong Kong. We must not make the same mistake when analyzing Xi's plans for Taiwan.
View ArticleWhat the PLA Is Learning From Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
China is watching Russia's military mistakes in Ukraine and will apply those lessons to its battle planning for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
View ArticleCan the US Deter a Taiwan Invasion?
Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.
View ArticleWhy Taiwan Can’t Copy Ukraine’s Civil Defense Blueprint
Replicating Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Force is not legally or politically feasible in Taiwan – at least for now.
View ArticleJapanese Former Defense Minister Morimoto Satoshi on a Taiwan Contingency
If “China can unify Taiwan while eliminating U.S. interference. This is the best scenario for China... The surrounding countries cannot help Taiwan.”
View ArticleXi Jinping Might Think He Can Handle His Own ‘Ukraine’
Xi might look at what has happened in Ukraine, and to the Russians, and think he’s got a reasonable shot at Taiwan.
View ArticleChina Is Not Russia; Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
The differences between each are stark enough that we can draw few useful parallels from the Ukraine War for Taiwan.
View ArticleHow Far Could the Quad Support Taiwan?
The Quad is supposed to help counterbalance China’s rise, but it remains unclear whether the bloc would intervene in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict.
View ArticleChina’s New White Paper Lays out Vision for Post ‘Reunification’ Taiwan
For the first time, Beijing leaves open the possibility of an extended military occupation after unification, adding to fears that Taiwanese would be subject to a “re-education” campaign.
View ArticleDo Legislative Visits Actually Help Taiwan?
Instead of deterring China, such visits in fact increase the risk of an invasion of Taiwan, because they create a nefarious incentive for it.
View ArticlePotential Logistical and Operational Costs of a China-Taiwan Conflict
Half of the global container fleet passed through the Taiwan Strait this year, making it a critical waterway for global supply chains.
View ArticleHow Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Drove Chinese Public Opinion Toward...
Since Pelosi’s visit, the future of the cross-strait issue has surged toward military conflict, as the Chinese public started to dismiss the possibility of peaceful reunification.
View ArticleBuilding Taiwan’s Own Area Denial Capabilities
Taiwan can use long-range anti-ship missiles to create its own A2/AD strategy.
View ArticleChina’s Real Takeaway From the War in Ukraine: Grey Zone Conflict Is Best
The steep costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will bolster China's continued use of its effective salami-slicing and grey zone tactics.
View ArticleChina and Taiwan: The Geopolitical Crisis Hiding in Plain Sight
Can the international community see through the fog of its current crises and adequately prepare for an even bigger crisis further down the road?
View ArticleSuppose the US Defeats a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan. What Then?
A Taiwan conflict in which the United States and its allies win the battles but lose the war would not be a historical first.
View ArticleThe US and China: Deterrence in the Danger Zone
Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs.
View ArticleRussia’s Irrational War in Ukraine Should Be a Warning for Predicting China’s...
Many of the factors that led to Putin’s disastrous decision are also present in China’s authoritarian system.
View Article10 Reasons Xi Won’t Attack Taiwan Anytime Soon
Yes, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ambitions for absorbing Taiwan. But so did all his predecessors.
View ArticleWhat the US Gets Wrong About Taiwan and Deterrence
Rather than preventing a war with China over Taiwan, a policy centered on military deterrence could spark one.
View ArticleWargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: ‘Victory Is Not Enough’
Insights from Mark Cancian.
View ArticleWill Xi Jinping Make Taiwan a New Offer?
With “one country, two systems” losing its appeal to Taiwan, Xi Jinping tapped top CCP ideologue Wang Huning to craft China’s new Taiwan unification theory.
View ArticleWhat ABC Missed About Australia’s Interests in Taiwan
A recent article series assumed that Australia would only defend Taiwan because the U.S. demands it. But Australia has its own reasons to act.
View ArticleSouth Korea Will Stay Out of a Taiwan Strait War
There is good reason to think South Korea would limit its support to actions near the low end of the spectrum.
View ArticleChina’s Military Exercises Near Taiwan: Signaling and War Scares
Beijing uses military exercises for a wide variety of reasons, from military training purposes to political and strategic ends.
View ArticleIn the Face of War, the Dangers of Pro-China Rhetoric in Taiwan
A subset of pro-China intellectuals and political elites in Taiwan are trying to convince the public that bolstering self-defense is somehow recklessly provocative.
View ArticleBuilding a US Special Forces ‘Stealth Network’ on Taiwan
The U.S. is making preparations for Ukraine-style military operations on Taiwan.
View ArticleTaiwan Says War With China Can and Should Be Avoided
Taiwanese officials largely downplay the risk of an imminent invasion from Beijing, but they are also making preparations for the worst-case scenario.
View ArticleWhat Drives the Taiwanese Fighting in Ukraine?
Many Taiwanese feel a sense of kinship with Ukraine as it battles an invading neighbor. But only a few have made the heavy choice to travel to Ukraine and take up arms.
View ArticleWhy Taiwan Should Be Included in the US Nuclear Umbrella
While providing Taiwan with nuclear weapons may not be practical, including Taiwan under the U.S. nuclear umbrella is a feasible alternative.
View ArticleChina Considers Countermeasures to US HIMARS Missile System
U.S. strategists have long hypothesized that the weapon could play a major role in a war with China. Now Beijing is watching how it is being used by Ukraine's military.
View ArticleTaiwan’s Will to Fight May Be Stronger Than You Think
Should China mount an invasion, Taiwan's political leadership and degree of social cohesion will be the most important factors in its defense.
View ArticlePreventing a Humanitarian Catastrophe in Taiwan
A cross-strait conflict would involve tremendous human suffering – and major difficulties in providing humanitarian aid.
View ArticleWhat Is Russia Teaching China in Military Drills?
The lesson China is most eager to learn from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: how to thwart U.S. reconnaissance.
View ArticleChina Ponders Russia’s Logistical Challenges in the Ukraine War
China is paying close attention to how Russia's logistical failures hampered its invasion of Ukraine – particularly as China will face an even steeper logistical challenge should it attack Taiwan.
View ArticleIndia’s Conundrum in the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis
Given the stakes involved, India needs to prepare for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. But how?
View ArticlePhilippines’ New National Security Plan Falls Short on Taiwan Policy
Manila’s latest National Security Policy does not reflect the catastrophic implications of a cross-strait conflict for the country's security.
View ArticleBeyond the Battlefield: China’s Quiet Bid to Sway Taiwan’s 2024 Election (and...
In the psychological sense, China’s “invasion” of Taiwan is well underway.
View ArticleChina Won’t Invade Taiwan – For Now
China is turning inwards, the U.S. is building deterrence, and Taiwan is committed to maintaining the status quo – all these factors will help keep the peace.
View ArticleChina’s 2024 Priorities Tucked in Xi Jinping’s New Year Speech
The president’s speech has a clear goal of boosting Chinese people’s declining confidence amid the past difficult years.
View ArticleUnderstanding China’s Approach to Deterrence
China’s approach to deterrence involves compelling as well as dissuading, and is intertwined with the idea of “war control.”
View ArticleMost Experts Agree: China Isn’t About to Invade Taiwan
A new report from the Swedish National China Centre finds that forecasts consistently rate the risk of armed conflict in the Taiwan strait as low.
View ArticleChina Looks to Ukraine War for Guidance on Attack Helicopters
With respect to Russian airpower, Chinese strategists continue to be quite fixated on Russian attack helicopter operations in Ukraine.
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